Burning plains
It was reported last week that summer this year sweltered to Earth’s hottest on record, making it likelier that 2024 will end up as the warmest period that we have measured. Per the European climate service Copernicus, the record breaking metrics were set only last year as human-caused climate change (from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas), buoyed by El Nino, kept notching up higher temperatures and extreme weather. The agency said that the northern meteorological summer — June, July and August — averaged 16.8 degrees Celsius. That’s 0.03 degrees Celsius warmer than the old record in 2023. What’s startling is that British and Japanese records, which start in the mid-19th century, peg the last decade to have been the hottest since regular measurements were taken and likely in about 120,000 years, per some scientists.
The implications are manifold in India, where the latest Economic Survey evoked strong reactions by suggesting a deviation from the generally accepted 1.5 degree Celsius target for limiting global temperature rise. The new approach favours adaptation strategies over mitigation initiatives. This arguably comes from the realisation that the repercussions of climate change are already manifesting and that the window to limit global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius is rapidly closing. One might recall that the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro was regarded as a touchstone in the arena of global environmental governance, as it was here that the world zeroed in on the tipping point of 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial level.
In the aftermath of the Rio Summit, we had the Paris Agreement, which focussed on terms such as Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR), as well as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which allowed countries to share the responsibility of tackling climate change, based on their historical emission levels, as well as their current capacities. This is where it gets tricky. India happens to be the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases. But, our per-person primary energy consumption last year was just 27.3 gigajoules (GJ). This is significantly lower than that of our nearest competitors and the two big emitters — 120 GJ of China, and 277.3 GJ of the US.
As the most prominent reference point for nations in the Global South, India has its work cut out in ensuring a delicate equilibrium vis-a-vis mitigation and adaptation. The renowned author and climate commentator Amitav Ghosh had recently referred to New Delhi back-footing on forecasting initiatives that would have helped mitigate the effects of floods and landslides in the country. The NITI Aayog had sought the shutting down of as many as 199 district agro-meteorological units in March 2024. These facilities, which were used as repositories of free advice by millions of farmers, are intended to be privatised now.
The toll exacted by climate change will manifest in other indignations as well. In March, the Union Ministry of Agriculture forewarned that in the absence of adaptation measures, rain-fed rice yields in the country are projected to dip by 20% in 2050, and 47% in 2080. Irrigated rice yields will face a less painful fate with reduction of 3.5% in 2050, and 5% in 2080. Even the humble source of our rotis and bread — wheat — could face yield depletion by 19.3% in 2050, and 40% in 2080. One only needs to imagine what is in store, if we continue down this road of no return.