South China Morning Post

Anti-graft purge ‘opens door’ for pro-China hardliners

The anti-corruption purge ripping through the top ranks of the Communist Party of Vietnam is driven by factional infighting that is likely to see the emergence of hardliners whose instincts may be to edge closer to China, according to analysts.

The party has shattered its reputation as a stable and secretive steward of Southeast Asia’s second-fastest growing economy with an unpreceden­ted campaign to root out corrupt officials conducted in front of a stunned public.

So far, the drive has forced the exits of two presidents; the powerful chair of the National Assembly, two deputy prime ministers and dozens of Central Committee members.

In its latest move, Hanoi said it removed Thuong Thi Mai, who ranked fifth among Vietnam’s leaders and was the only woman in the Politburo, for “violations and shortcomin­gs”, without elaboratin­g, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, the high-profile US$27 billion fraud inside Saigon Joint Stock Commercial Bank (SCB), one of the country’s largest banks, has left foreign investors questionin­g the fundamenta­ls of the institutio­ns they need to do business with to enter Vietnam’s roaring market.

While the crackdown has slowed routine transactio­ns and snarled up bureaucrat­ic processes, it may create a positive impact in terms of improving business transparen­cy.

“The impact of the anticorrup­tion campaign manifests in reducing bribery cost, enhancing performanc­e in the private sector and significan­tly improving investment efficiency in the public sector,” said Khanh Hoang, a lecturer at Lincoln University.

The average cost of bribery in Vietnam is about 3 per cent of corporate revenue, according to a survey by the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

But the crackdown points more to the snakes-and-ladders fortunes of Vietnam’s political elite than a real desire to uproot corruption, said Bill Hayton, an Associate Fellow with the Asia-Pacific Programme at Chatham House.

“They will never get rid of corruption … because corruption is how the system works,” he said. “If we assume that everybody is corrupt, there is a good reason to then think why some people get taken out and not others?”

Leading the anti-corruption campaign is the head of the Politburo, Vietnam’s apex institutio­n, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who is in charge of setting the nation’s direction every five years.

The 80-year-old is leading the country for an unpreceden­ted third term. He orchestrat­ed the “Blazing Furnace” anti-graft drive, which has seen five Politburo members engulfed by related allegation­s and forced to resign since 2021.

With his health a constant source of speculatio­n in Vietnam, Trong is not expected to continue in his role when the next power transition of the party takes place in January 2026.

According to analysts, the infighting at the top is to prepare for new leaders who will helm the nation until January 2031.

This week, the party’s central committee named four new candidates for the Politburo.

As the purge continues, party hardliners are expected to come to the fore, analysts say.

Minister of Public Security To Lam, who was famously filmed in 2021 being served a gold-flecked steak by celebrity chef Salt Bae at a London restaurant, has played a lead role in identifyin­g corrupt party figures and others.

To Lam has allegedly overseen arrests of activists as well as the kidnapping of Trinh Xuan Thanh, a Vietnamese fugitive in Berlin, according to Bloomberg.

“He can decide who gets investigat­ed and who gets to put on trial,” Hayton said.

Vietnam is expected to announce a new president next week, which may pave the way for To Lam to become Vietnam’s next party chief in the power transition happening within two years.

Tran Thanh Man, Vice-Chair of the National Assembly, is another party heavyweigh­t who could be made assembly chairman. General Luong Cuong, chief political commissar, is slated to become Party Executive Secretary – only the second military man to get the role since 1994, if confirmed. Colonel General Luong Tam Quang has been tipped to take Minister of Public Security.