Clouds gather over PM
Trudeau's really bad week only getting worse
Justin Trudeau has had a really, really bad week.
The news of Jagmeet Singh ending the coalition between the Liberals and New Democratic Party would be enough to ruin any politician's week. Then it was revealed that Trudeau's campaign director for the next election was quitting because he doesn't think the prime minister can win.
Now, add to that Friday's unemployment numbers that show the jobless rate is up at 6.6% and that we lost 44,000 full-time jobs in August all while adding just shy of 100,000 new people to the labour market.
At least Trudeau got to escape to the Toronto International Film Festival and hang out with Canada's artistic elite.
The NDP has been planning for the breakup for some time. Party insiders say the decision to end the coalition was made almost three weeks ago, the video shot two weeks ago, and social media materials designed for MPS delivered this week.
While the NDP plotted, it kept the news well hidden from Trudeau's team, which found out minutes before Singh released his video statement and minutes after the story was broken by the Toronto Sun.
Trudeau and his team knew the deal would come to an end one day, but they weren't expecting it to happen before the House of Commons resumes in two weeks.
That's if MPS even return to Ottawa for a fall sitting on Sept. 16.
Rumours that the government is considering proroguing the House until a later date are rampant. Speaking on background with Liberals, Conservatives and New Democrats, they all say they expect it to happen and that strategically it makes sense.
That's especially true now that Jeremy Broadhurst, a longtime Liberal staffer, adviser and Trudeau's national campaign director, has quit.
Broadhurst has been a key part of Trudeau's success going back to 2015. Those who know how Trudeau's team operates say losing Broadhurst is a major blow.
To add insult to injury, news of his departure was leaked to the Toronto Star, including an unnamed source saying that Broadhurst
told the PM that “he didn't think Trudeau could win the next election.” That kind of leak is damaging to Broadhurst on his way out, but it's more damaging to Trudeau's team, which looks amateurish, sloppy and ill prepared for an election that could come sooner than expected.
If the House of Commons does return on Sept. 16, we could end up with an election before the Americans choose their next president on Nov. 5. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has promised to move a motion of non-confidence as soon as possible, if that were to pass — which is unlikely — then we'd vote before the Yanks.
It might be something Trudeau would enjoy actually, an entire election where he could campaign against Donald Trump at a time when the circus of the American vote is high on everyone's minds.
The Liberals have been trying to tie Poilievre to Trump for more than a year. It hasn't worked because it's an unfair comparison and also because Trump has been a distant thought for most.
Campaigning at the same time as the Americans might be Trudeau's only hope to try to squeak out a win by playing the fear card — vote Liberal or get a Canadian Donald Trump.
The biggest change with the end of the Liberal-ndp coalition, a supply and confidence agreement, is that uncertainty now rules the day in federal politics. We could actually have an election very soon, either in the fall after the economic statement or in the spring after the budget. Or we could go all the way until October 2025.
There are a lot of factors at play and plenty of unknowns, which is going to make this coming session much more interesting to watch.