Every bullpen presents risk
More big-league arms needed, as four locks combine for $25M in 2025
The noncontending Blue Jays have been playing some pretty good baseball of late with one major exception: the bullpen.
The bullpen has been a major weakness for the Jays all year. It was bad for much of the first half, ineffective in August and even worse in September. This is one group that won’t be easily fixed.
The Jays entered Tuesday’s series opener against the Texas Rangers with a 5-7 record this month. Of those seven losses, the bullpen was directly responsible for five. The Jays could have been on a 10-2 run; instead they lost three of their last four series.
A lack of pitching depth forced the Jays to get creative. They claimed two relievers off waivers last month and three more this month. A few have debuted, others are waiting in the minors. None of them look overly promising. The Jays essentially are holding open auditions because they have so many holes to fill. They will need to add at least three or four big-league-calibre arms next season while improving the depth in the minors to protect against injuries and regression.
There appear to be four locks in the eight-man group. Jordan Romano should be back as closer following an injury-plagued year and Chad Green will return as his top setup man. Génesis Cabrera will be one of the left-handers after a bounceback season that includes a 3.10 ERA in 58 innings. Erik Swanson, who has a 2.89 ERA since returning from the minors in late July, should have a spot, too.
After that, well, there isn’t much. Brendon Little, who has a 3.51 ERA in 41 innings, is an option for the second lefty. Ryan Burr, Tommy Nance, Luis Frias, Yerry Rodriguez, Brett de Geus, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Dillon Tate are the type of relievers one would expect to find on waivers. Maybe one from that group will turn into something, more likely they’re all placeholders until someone better comes along.
The Jays face the difficult task of upgrading that lacklustre group in one off-season. The best way to fix a bullpen — beyond signing a pricey closer to solidify the ninth inning — is from within and the Jays don’t have the prospects to do it, which puts them in dangerous territory.
The last time the Jays were in desperate need of relief help they traded a middle-of-the-order bat in Teoscar Hernández to acquire Swanson. From a pitching standpoint, the move worked for a year but the Jays don’t have any big bats to spare. If they make a deal this winter, it will have to involve lowlevel prospects or young big-leaguers like Spencer Horwitz, Addison Barger or Leo Jimenez.
The alternative is to fix the problem through free agency, but that too has pitfalls. The performance of relievers is notoriously difficult to project from one year to the next and it usually doesn’t end well for teams that sign them to lucrative multi-year deals. There are exceptions, it’s just hard to figure out who they might be. That’s one reason the Jays have never guaranteed more than $11 million (U.S.) to a free-agent reliever.
The Jays bullpen already isn’t cheap. Romano, Green, Swanson and Cabrera could earn $25 million to $30 million next season. The starting rotation of José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez will make another $71.5 million. That’s approximately $100 million on pitching before any additions.
The other issue with adding freeagent relievers is that once signed, they’re locked in. Pitchers without options can’t be sent to the minors when they’re struggling or if the club needs a fresh arm, which significantly decreases the value of anyone on the fringe. That’s why prospects are always better in the bottom half of the bullpen.
But sticking with the status quo isn’t an option. The Jays bullpen has a 4.78 ERA, third-highest in the majors. Their relievers have surrendered more home runs per nine innings (1.49) than any team in baseball, they’ve issued the ninthmost walks (3.67) and they’ve struck out the third-fewest (7.89). It has been sloppy all around.
While the bullpen will be the primary focus for the Jays this offseason, it can’t be the only one. There have been 19 teams with more reliever losses this season and 14 teams with more blown saves. Yes, it has been a problem but a lack of power in the everyday lineup was just as big of a hindrance in 2024.
It’s going to be challenging for GM Ross Atkins, or whoever is running the Jays, to plug all the holes. It will require a leap of faith, or two or three. Every bullpen is a gamble but overhauling a group like this that also lacks depth leads to bigger wagers than usual.
Risk-taking has never been a strength of this front office. This off-season, however, it might have to become one because the safe bullpen arms will be few and far between.