Distaste for Poilievre is sweet to Bloc
Only one political party came out of Monday’s federal byelections with total victory — the Bloc Québécois — and it could be a signal to buckle up for a major turn in Canadian politics in the weeks and months ahead.
In fact, it could be argued that the Bloc’s clout in Parliament hasn’t been this large since it served as Her Majesty’s official opposition in the 1990s.
What seemed then an odd chapter in Canadian history — a separatist party occupying seats normally reserved for a government in waiting — was also a symptom of the malaise with politics as usual in this country at the time.
The Bloc’s surge in influence today, three decades later, may spring from a similar sentiment. It only holds 33 seats now, but the distemper of this polarized, minority Parliament puts the Bloc in the driver’s seat. And that is more than a Quebec story.
Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet wasn’t exactly gloating on Tuesday morning as he appeared with his new MP from LaSalleÉmard-Verdun, Louis-Philippe Sauvé. But he was certainly satisfied with what many saw as a surprise win.
Yes, it was unequivocally bad news for Justin Trudeau and his Liberals, Blanchet said. But he was also clear that the votes cast in Montreal and Winnipeg could not exactly be seen as good news for New Democrats or even Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
The NDP has already strengthened the Bloc by ripping up its governing deal with the Liberals earlier this month, forcing Trudeau to pay more attention to keeping the Bloc onside if it wants to stay in government.
The NDP came in third in Montreal, and the party had been daring to dream about riding on Trudeau fatigue to secure another seat in Quebec. The result, then, can hardly be seen as vindication for ending the deal with the Liberals — or at least, leaving it as late as it did if the goal was to be seen as the Liberal alternative in Quebec.
Asked whether he was in a hurry for a general election, Blanchet said, warningly: “I will be as soon as I have the impression that the Liberals will not be disposed to look at our issues.” Translation: the Bloc is drawing up its conditions for keeping an election in the more distant future and Trudeau better be paying attention.
As for Poilievre, whose Conservatives trailed badly in fourth in Montreal and failed to win in Winnipeg as dearly hoped, there is further evidence that whatever is driving their national poll numbers upward, it isn’t Poilievre-mania.
Blanchet described it witheringly, saying the Conservative leader has a tone problem.
“I think that if Mr. Poilievre doesn’t change his tone, someone will have to remind him that over three general elections, the Bloc will have dealt with three different Conservative leaders with results that are quite positive for the Bloc,” he said. “So I think that they should change their language … There’s a message in yesterday’s byelection, and in this case, this could be transposed to other ridings.”
That’s not the first time a prominent Quebecer has said recently that Poilievre’s style grates on Quebecers. In LaPresse, the large and influential French-language newspaper in the province, columnist Michel C. Auger flatly stated a couple of weeks ago: “Quebecers are allergic to Poilievre’s style, that of intimidation, insults, and a feeling that he has never encountered an argument to which he does not want to get involved.”
Blanchet has said on any number of occasions that he isn’t interested in helping Poilievre become the next prime minister and often bristles at the Conservative leader’s attack-dog performance.
The Bloc’s immediate demands from the Liberals revolve, interestingly,
around issues of concern to older voters: an increase in the oldage supplement for seniors and Quebec-driven modifications to the rules around medical assistance in dying.
But more largely, the Bloc will be looking for anything that enhances provincial powers and authority. That dovetails with a sentiment rampant in Canada overall right now, with premiers such as Alberta’s Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe telling Ottawa to butt out of their business.
Trudeau’s government, then, is going to be ramming up on multiple fronts against political forces trying to weaken the central, federal
government. Setting aside all those obvious questions this week about whether Trudeau has been further, personally weakened, the Bloc’s enhanced clout raises issues about whether Ottawa itself will be hobbled by the current political situation.
When the Bloc first landed with a bang in the middle of Canadian politics in the early 1990s, it was a symptom of fatigue and exasperation with constitutional drama in the Brian Mulroney years. This time, it’s gathering steam from a different kind of fatigue.
The Bloc is getting stronger in the fall of 2024 because the three main federal political parties are not.