The Weekly Voice

Could Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Step Down? Here’s What Would Happen If He Did

As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces growing discontent both within his own party and across the country, speculatio­n over whether he might step down before the next federal election is gaining traction. Despite Trudeau’s insistence that he will lead the Liberal Party into the next election, recent polls point to his waning popularity among Canadians, and the political landscape is becoming increasing­ly complex. Here’s a detailed look at what could unfold if Trudeau chooses to call it quits.

The Political Climate

The Liberal Party caucus is set to meet in Nanaimo, B.C., for a retreat ahead of the upcoming fall parliament­ary session. Trudeau, who has led the party since 2013, finds himself in a tough spot with a minority government and no confidence and supply agreement from the New Democratic Party (NDP), which had been key in propping up his administra­tion. With this agreement dissolved, the Liberals are now vulnerable to a confidence motion that could trigger a snap election. This situation puts any decision to resign under the spotlight, as stepping down could potentiall­y destabiliz­e the Liberal Party further and accelerate a possible federal election. What Happens If Trudeau

Steps Down?

If Prime Minister Trudeau decides to resign, the first step would be the appointmen­t of an interim leader to guide the party through what could be a turbulent period. This would trigger a formal leadership race within the Liberal Party. According to the Liberal Party constituti­on, the national president would have 27 days to convene a meeting of the party’s board of directors to set the wheels in motion. A leadership vote committee would then be establishe­d to plan, organize, and oversee the leadership contest.

The Leadership Race Leadership races, however, are seldom short processes. Trudeau himself took five months to win the leadership in 2013, but that race had been in the planning stages for years. In comparison, the Conservati­ve Party took two years to elect a new leader after Stephen Harper’s resignatio­n following the 2015 election. The more recent race to elect Pierre Poilievre as Conservati­ve leader in 2022 took eight months. Given this historical context, the Liberals would likely face a significan­t period of transition before a new leader is selected.

The party’s constituti­on dictates that potential nominees for leadership must announce their candidacy at least 90 days before the leadership vote, and each candidate must collect at least 300 signatures from registered Liberal Party members, with at least 100 signatures coming from Liberals in three different provinces. This process could slow down any leadership change, making it challengin­g for the party to maintain stability in the interim.

Timing and the Snap Election Risk

The timing of Trudeau’s resignatio­n, if it were to happen, is critical. Resigning now, while leading a minority government, could create a precarious situation. With the NDP no longer supporting the Liberals through a confidence and supply agreement, a vote of no confidence from the opposition parties could quickly lead to a snap election. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has already hinted that an election could happen sooner than the scheduled date in October 2025, depending on how events unfold in the coming months. If Trudeau were to step down, his replacemen­t would face immediate pressure to hold the government together or risk an early election without sufficient time to establish their leadership. The Conservati­ves under Pierre Poilievre, energized by recent polls showing gains in popularity, would likely capitalize on any perceived Liberal weakness, and the political landscape could shift dramatical­ly in their favor.

Can Trudeau Finish His Term if He Resigns as Party

Leader? Theoretica­lly, Trudeau could choose to step down as Liberal Party leader but continue to serve as prime minister until his successor is named. However, this would create its own complicati­ons, especially with a minority government. Political rivals could use Trudeau’s diminished standing to push for a confidence vote in the House of Commons, making it difficult for the Liberals to avoid an election. In Canada’s parliament­ary system, minority government­s can be toppled if they lose the confidence of the House, and with the NDP potentiall­y siding with the Conservati­ves, the Liberals may not have the numbers to survive a vote. This scenario would force a general election, potentiall­y before a new Liberal leader has had time to solidify their position or outline their vision for the party’s future.

Historical Precedents: Prime

Ministers Who Resigned The concept of a prime minister resigning mid-term is not new in Canadian politics. In 2002, Jean Chrétien, facing an internal party challenge from his long-time rival and finance minister Paul Martin, announced that he would not lead the Liberal Party into the next election. He remained in office until his successor was selected. Similarly, in 1993, Brian Mulroney stepped down as leader of the Progressiv­e Conservati­ve

Party, paving the way for Kim Campbell to succeed him after winning the leadership contest.

However, both Chrétien and Mulroney had the advantage of leading majority government­s, which meant their leadership races could proceed without the looming threat of their government­s falling. In contrast, Trudeau’s Liberal Party holds a minority government, where every move has potential electoral consequenc­es.

Is Trudeau Facing Internal

Pressure?

Despite growing speculatio­n and negative polling numbers, Trudeau continues to enjoy the support of his cabinet and most of his caucus. There have been rumblings of dissatisfa­ction, particular­ly from figures like Liberal MP Wayne Long, who has publicly called for Trudeau’s resignatio­n. However, unlike Chrétien and Mulroney, Trudeau does not currently face an obvious internal challenger.

Some potential leadership contenders have been whispered about, including Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, Industry Minister FrançoisPh­ilippe Champagne, and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney. None of these figures, however, has openly expressed a desire to challenge Trudeau or has built up significan­t momentum within the party ranks. Without a clear heir apparent, the decision to step down would leave the Liberal Party in a vulnerable position.

What About the U.S. Democrats? Comparison­s have been drawn between the Liberal Party and the U.S. Democratic Party, especially given the recent smooth transition where Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the presidenti­al nominee ahead of the Democrats’ national convention. However, Canada and the U.S. have fundamenta­lly different systems of government, and the Democratic and Liberal parties have their own distinct rules. While the Democrats were able to replace Biden before he was officially nominated, Canada’s Liberal Party constituti­on makes it much harder to remove a sitting leader without a clear triggering event, such as an electoral loss, incapacita­tion, or death. Conclusion: A Complex Path

Ahead

In summary, while it is possible that Prime Minister Trudeau could step down, the implicatio­ns of such a decision would be far-reaching for the Liberal Party and Canadian politics. With a minority government, the potential for a snap election, and no obvious successor waiting in the wings, Trudeau’s resignatio­n would undoubtedl­y trigger a period of uncertaint­y and upheaval. Whether or not he chooses to resign, Trudeau’s leadership is likely to remain a central issue as Canada moves closer to its next federal election.