Course data doesn’t lie
Edoardo Molinari and big data speak know the truth
When Europe beat the United States in last fall’s Ryder Cup in Italy, the quiet, behind-the-scenes hero was assistant captain Edoardo Molinari, longtime European Tour player and brother of former Open champion, Francesco.
Edoardo has been an early adopter of applying big data to golf strategy at the highest level. Most believe this Ryder Cup was the first where the full power of analytics was unleashed. He is thoughtful and brave, speaking out against the myths that have been influencing bad strategy on the golf course for decades, let alone such Ryder Cup strategies as team pairings and course setup.
Edoardo has become a popular interview subject when a sports journalist wants the real scoop on how the analysis of millions of data points is shaking up a game that has been stuck in the past longer than most.
On a recent edition of “The Golfer’s
Journal” podcast, he was asked what the three most egregious examples of golf strategy are that simply don’t stand up to the evidence. If you subscribe to axioms like “Keep your ball below the hole” and “Make sure you come into the green from the right side of the fairway,” you may be surprised at what he has to say.
So, close your eyes and pretend you’re listening to an eloquent, Italian golf professional discuss with passion and fervour how the tracking of literally millions of golf shots around the world has created a treasure trove of insights just dying to be mined by people like himself. And me and you.
First of all: Leaving yourself a socalled better angle into the green by choosing a specific side of the fairway to approach the green from is pure bunk. It’s way more important to be in the fairway, anywhere, than worrying about what angle to approach the green from. The data shows that, for almost any golfer, it’s easier to hit over a hazard than to avoid one that’s on the left or right of your target. So the very idea of leaving yourself a shot that you consider wide open to the green is ridiculous. Focus on advancing your ball as far as you can within the fairway and you’ve optimized your situation. Full stop.
Second: How many times have you heard someone say you’re better off leaving yourself an uphill putt over a downhill one? Again, listen to Edoardo, in his smooth accent say that’s a load of garbage. The data backs him up.
Try it for yourself. Pick a consistent slope on any green and hit 20 uphill 10-footers and 20 downhill 10-footers. See which putt you sink the most. And Edoardo says, especially in a scramble format, where you’ve got four or five chances at the same putt, always pick the downhill putt. A substantial percentage of uphill putts come up short. The best thing about a downhill putt is you almost always get it to the hole.
Finally, allow me to paraphrase Edoardo on a topic he experiences almost every week when he is paired with amateurs on pro-am day. Stop lying about how far you hit it! There isn’t a week that goes by where he’s paired with an amateur and asks him how far he hits his eight-iron. And he hears, “150 yards.” Edoardo knows he’s lying through his teeth, especially after watching his ball come up 10 yards short on every iron shot after that. In today’s day and age, there is no excuse for not knowing exactly how far you really hit every club.
We golfers tend to think we are better than we are. And, unlike in some sports, where that may help by boosting your self-confidence, in golf it leads to bad decisions that cost you even more shots. If you love golf for its purity, for how it puts you in situations that test your fortitude and patience, embrace building a strategy for each hole anchored in your golf truths.
I can see why the European Ryder Cuppers love Edoardo. He makes them better by speaking the truth, and now he’s got big data on his side.