Trudeau heads for the hotseat at NATO summit as allies question Canada's defence commitments
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heads to Washing‐ ton today for a meeting of NATO nations - where he's widely expected to hear some tough talk from allies behind closed doors about his government's refusal to deliver a clear plan to meet the alliance's defence spending targets.
Twenty-three of 32 NATO member nations are ex‐ pected this year to meet the alliance target of spending a minimum of two per cent of their gross domestic produc‐ ts on defence. Canada is among a handful of NATO countries that don't meet that benchmark.
Former Canadian ambas‐ sador to NATO Kerry Buck said her experience of these summits suggests that the naming and shaming goes on behind closed doors at indi‐ vidual bilateral meetings.
When all the leaders gath‐ er together in formal ses‐ sions, however, names are not mentioned. Instead, sta‐ tistics showing each coun‐ try's contribution are flashed up on a screen.
"It's used as a political club," Buck said of the two per cent benchmark. "And no doubt, unless there's a signal before the summit, Canada will get beaten about the head and shoulders with that club."
Canada currently has a plan to get its military spend‐ ing up to 1.76 per cent of
GDP.
The Liberal government has vowed that planned mili‐ tary spending which has not yet been approved will push the country over the two per cent line. But those state‐ ments fall short of the clear plan NATO is expecting to see.
"If the government is smart, they should announce two per cent with a date and a plan before Washington. Because the longer we hang out there as the outlier, the bigger target space we're giv‐ ing to whoever the next American president is," Buck said.
In a background technical briefing, senior government officials insisted Friday that the federal government's new defence policy represen‐ ts Canada's commitment to getting to two per cent. One senior official, who was not authorized to speak on the record, insisted the whole de‐ bate has been overblown.
"Over time when we had these summits with Ameri‐ cans, or meetings, observers often expect the Americans to be critical of us, and fran‐ kly, it never happens," said the official, who pointed to U.S. President Joe Biden's spring visit to Ottawa, during which the defence spending target wasn't raised.
"The discussion going into that was, he was expected to come in and criticize Canada for not doing its part. In fact, the opposite happened. They see the contribution we're making. And they recognize it. And I expect nothing dif‐ ferent next week."
That remark appears to ignore the fact that a biparti‐ san group of U.S. lawmakers wrote to the prime minister last spring urging Canada to meet the renewed bench‐ mark, which was agreed to by all allies at last year's NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
On Friday, soon-to-retire NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg underlined the two per cent commitment and said that allies are ex‐ pecting more.
"We agreed last year that two per cent was the min‐ imum," Stoltenberg said. "So of course we have more to do and I expect that at Wash‐ ington we will then also strengthen the message about defence spending, or make sure that allies are de‐ livering."
Some NATO nations want a 3 per cent benchmark
Also on Friday, a senior U.S. official acknowledged that some allies, such as Poland, are pushing for the bench‐ mark to be increased to three per cent.
"Obviously, different allies have different circum‐ stances," said the official, who spoke at a background briefing in Washington.
"We're going to continue to press for equitable burden sharing and for credible plans from all allies that haven't yet met the two per cent commitment to be able to reach that commitment as soon as possible in the com‐ ing years. And I think a num‐ ber of allies will come to the table with credible plans for achieving that benchmark in the near-term future."
Another defence analyst said Prime Minister Trudeau is no doubt braced for what‐ ever he hears from other NATO leaders - in private or in public.
"I'm sure he's prepared to be politely bombarded," said Andrew Rasiulis, a former se‐ nior official at the Depart‐ ment of National Defence (DND) who once ran the de‐ partment's Directorate of Nu‐ clear and Arms Control Policy. "I don't think anyone's going to strip the skin off over that."
Defence Minister Bill Blair and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly will join Trudeau in Washington. In interviews and public statements over the past month, both minis‐ ters have hinted that Canada might have something more concrete to show allies in Washington - but govern‐ ment officials dialled back those expectations on Friday.
Blair said last month that Canada, Germany and Nor‐ way are discussing the possi‐ bility of a trilateral defence and security partnership cov‐ ering the North Atlantic and the Arctic - one that would give Canada access to sub‐ marines the two European nations are jointly construct‐ ing. But officials attending the background briefing had nothing to add, saying the federal government was talk‐ ing to a range of partners and those sensitive talks are ongoing.
Trudeau will meet with se‐ nior U.S. Senate officials and American business leaders about trade and economic files ahead of the summit.
Blair is also scheduled to speak to an influential for‐ eign policy magazine and participate in a NATO policy forum on northern security.