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Byelection win fuels ongoing U.S. debate: Are Democrats in better shape than polls suggest?

The results of a special election this week poured fuel on a debate raging among American political observers.

The topic: Are Democrats actually in better shape than they appear heading into this year's presidenti­al election?

Because by convention­al standards, they seem to be in pretty rough shape. Poll after poll shows Donald Trump ahead of President Joe Biden, nationally and in swing states.

In fact, Trump has never enjoyed surveys this good, not in either of his past two elections, which he won and nearly won.

On the other side, doubters of these polls insist that what matters is results. Real election results. By that standard, Democrats are en‐ joying a hot streak.

This week they reclaimed the New York City district pre‐ viously held by Republican congressma­n George Santos the accused fraudster in‐ famous for lying about being Jewish, about where he went to school and worked, and about his mother dying in a terrorist attack.

It's no isolated success, ei‐ ther. Democrats defied both the polls and history last year for an incumbent party - they gained a Senate seat, almost held the House, gained two state governorsh­ips, took control of four state legisla‐ tive chambers and won a string of special elections. 'See you in November'

A triumphant-sounding De‐ mocratic congressma­n cele‐ brated Tuesday's result with a taunt about this fall's presi‐ dential election.

"We'll see you in Novem‐ ber," Rep. Ted Lieu said Wednesday, the day after De‐ mocrats won Santos's seat. He ascribed the win to voters recognizin­g which of the ma‐ jor parties actually cares about governing.

"What are Republican­s fo‐ cused on? Stupid stuff, like baseless impeachmen­ts with no evidence, stopping a na‐ tional security package that's going to improve America's national security, and doing things that no one in America really wants them to do…. The

American people want a Con‐ gress that actually does something."

Needless to say, Republi‐ cans drew contradict­ory con‐ clusions from the result.

They pointed to the De‐ mocrats' advantages in this race: they spent heavily; ran a well-known former congress‐ man and mayor against an unknown Republican criti‐ cized for avoiding public even‐ ts; and in a district with a his‐ tory of swinging wildly be‐ tween parties, they capital‐ ized on Santos's inimitable ar‐ ray of personal scandals.

"There are a lot of factors there. That [result] is in no way a bellwether of what will happen this fall," House Speaker Mike Johnson said. "There is a fervour among the American people. People know this country is on the wrong track."

Shift in voter habits

So what's going on here?

What's undisputed­ly hap‐ pening is that there's a shift helping Democrats perform better than they once did in low-turnout contests like Tuesday's byelection in New York.

The parties are undergoing a realignmen­t in their voter coalitions - with the collegeedu­cated, and the most politi‐ cally engaged, voters drifting toward the Democrats.

WATCH | Could the De‐ mocrats replace Joe Biden as their presidenti­al candi‐ date?

Just look at the historical trendline.

College-educated voters now constitute nearly half of the Democratic electorate that's double their share from 2000. These voters now make up a far higher share of the Democratic electorate than the Republican one.

It's a historic reversal: these voters used to identify primarily as Republican­s.

Republican­s used to win most college-educated voters until 2000, but a grad‐ ual shift occurred, and it accel‐ erated during the Trump era, culminatin­g in Democrats winning college graduates by about 12 points in 2020.

These sorts of voters are statistica­lly likelier to turn out in an election like Tuesday's: a low-participat­ion race, during a winter blizzard, to decide a single seat that won't change control of Congress.

This extended a hot streak for Democrats that began in mid-2022, when the Supreme Court ended the constituti­on‐ al right to an abortion, un‐ leashing a torrent of anger and activism on the political left.

Does win streak trans‐ late to another presi‐ dency?

Democrats have been repeat‐ edly over-performing polls. And not just that: they've been improving on past elec‐ tion results. In four districts

that have held special elec‐ tions since the 2022 midter‐ ms, Democrats have im‐ proved on their previous score in all four, including by a whopping 15 points in a cou‐ ple of them.

Is any of this predictive of what might happen in this fal‐ l's presidenti­al election?

The head of an election da‐ ta company acknowledg­es Democrats have reason to be pleased with recent results.

"They have certainly done very well in special elections," said Drew McCoy, president of Decision Desk HQ, in an inter‐ view this week.

But he adds a big caveat.

These results don't tell us much about a presidenti­al race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

"Special elections tend not to be predictive," McCoy said.

This goes back to the types of voters who show up in presidenti­al versus nonpreside­ntial elections. In the midterm elections of both 2022 and 2018, 43 per cent of voters had a college degree.

This is significan­tly higher than the percentage who had one in presidenti­al elections, six points higher than in 2016 and four points higher than in 2020. Given the close results in presidenti­al swing states, that's a potentiall­y gamechangi­ng difference.

Concerns about the fall

The Democrats' lead pollster in the New York race this week, Mike Bocian, said the turnout numbers left him feeling positive about Novem‐ ber.

He said the Democratic candidate, Tom Suozzi, tapped into a deep desire of voters for solutions, rather than virulent partisansh­ip.

Bocian lauded Suozzi's centrist message on what's been a difficult issue for De‐ mocrats - the border and im‐ migration. Suozzi advocated more border security, but also more legal immigratio­n, and he contrasted that with Re‐ publicans' alleged obstruc‐ tionism after that party block‐ ed a border deal.

"That is where the public is," Bocian told a podcast hosted by The New Republic magazine. "What they want, mostly, is solutions."

Yet he acknowledg­ed lin‐ gering concerns about the fall.

One worry is whether lower-propensity voters will turn out in droves for Trump; the former president twice broke a record for most votes received by a Republican can‐ didate.

The other is whether the Democratic base holds to‐ gether. Young voters, and voters of colour, are unusual‐ ly disenchant­ed with Biden, which is a major reason he has fallen behind in the polls.

Bocian said Biden's cam‐ paign must communicat­e to these voters the threat of a national abortion ban should Republican­s win this fall.

Behind that, he said, the campaign has to adjust its usual timetable.

Rather than wait until later in the race to contact base voters in a final get-out-thevote push, he urged immedi‐ ate outreach.

"I think that's gotta change this cycle," Bocian said. "We need to be reaching out early, often, and making the case to these younger voters and voters of colour."