What continued drone strikes on Russian oil refineries could mean for war with Ukraine
Hostile drones have been winding their way across the Russian landscape this winter, striking refineries and related oil and gas in‐ frastructure all the way from the Baltic Sea in the northwest to the Black Sea in the southwest.
Drones attacked both the Ilsky and Afipsky refineries in Russia's Krasnodar region, east of occupied Crimea, on Feb. 9, less than a week after another refinery in Volgograd, the largest in southern Russia, was hit. Further attacks have struck other refineries and oil depots near the Ukrainian border, as well as much deep‐ er into Russian territory.
Though Ukraine does not typically confirm its actions outside its borders and Russia has not officially acknowl‐ edged drones were the cause of these incidents, media re‐ ports have identified Kyiv's hand in the attacks occurring with regularity as Moscow's invasion of Ukraine nears the two-year mark.
Analysts say the drone at‐ tacks are demonstrating that oil and gas targets of econom‐ ic significance are not out of reach, even far from the front lines of the war.
"This is where strikes are intended to hurt," said Sergey Radchenko, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Ad‐ vanced International Studies. He sees a distinction between these types of targets versus strikes that have drawn atten‐ tion but had less strategic im‐ pact.
He says Ukraine has grad‐ ually been able to send drones "further and further inside Russia," and in doing so, may be aiming to make Russia think twice about its actions on the other side of the border.
Russia, oil and revenues Late U.S. Senator John Mc‐ Cain once derisively described Russia as being "a gas station masquerading as a country" a jibe underlining the critical importance of oil and gas pro‐ ducts to Moscow.
Indeed, Russia draws heavily on its resource re‐ serves to support the state. The International Energy Agency says Russia's oil and gas export revenues accoun‐ ted for 45 per cent of its feder‐ al budget in 2021.
Over the course of the war, as the West capped the price of Russia's oil, it turned instead to China, India and other markets.
As Radchenko points out, these exports contribute "sig‐ nificantly" to Russia's earn‐ ings, allowing it to use those funds to import goods and support the war effort.
A January attack on a No‐ vatek facility in Ust-Luga hal‐ ted gas processing operations there for several weeks. The plant processes gas conden‐ sate into various fuel produc‐ ts that are exported to cus‐ tomers in Turkey and Asia, ac‐ cording to Reuters.
Sergey Vakulenko, a former strategy executive at Gazprom Neft, a subsidiary of the larger Russian energy firm, believes the Ust-Luga episode may illustrate a bigger problem for Russia than a temporary disruption to production at a single facil‐ ity.
In a recent analysis pub‐ lished online, Vakulenko rea‐ soned that if small drones can get all the way to Ust-Luga, which is hundreds of kilome‐ tres from the Ukrainian bor‐ der, there are some 18 Russ‐ ian refineries at risk of being targeted, and they account for more than half the coun‐ try's refinery production. He's not the only analyst noticing this concern for Russia's re‐ fineries.
And while the drones being used in these attacks may be small, they can still cause problems.
"With a bit of luck, they can damage not just pipelines, but also compres‐ sors, valves, control units, and other pieces of equipment that are tricky to replace be‐ cause of sanctions," Vaku‐ lenko wrote in the analysis.
The Russian government has taken steps to deal with the problem.
Maxim Starchak, an inde‐ pendent expert on the Russ‐ ian defence and nuclear in‐ dustry, says regulations have been put in place to restrict drones from flying close to "the most significant fuel and energy sector facilities" and operators are using electronic warfare systems to defend against drone threats.
But Starchak said Russian energy firms must foot the bill for expenses related to de‐ fence of their facilities.
"Moscow will not specifi‐ cally help," he said, noting Russian authorities may hold firms accountable for not putting measures in place to protect their facilities.
A familiar threat for Ukraine
On the other side of the border, Ukraine has seen the deadly impact drone strikes can have - including in Kharkiv last weekend.
Regional governor Oleh Syniehubov said at least 10 in‐ coming drones were involved in the assault, with eight of the devices shot down - but one hit an oil depot, which then caused a fuel leak. The ensuing fire burned down 15 homes and killed at least seven people.
Ukraine has faced attacks on various forms of infra‐ structure since the launch of the Russian invasion, includ‐ ing its energy grid, port facili‐ ties and railway stations.
As Ukraine continues to fight to repel Russian forces from its lands, its military leaders have signalled drones and related technology will be needed to win the war that seems to have no end in sight.
"Only changes and con‐ stant improvement of the means and methods of war‐ fare will make it possible to achieve success on this path," said Col.-Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the newly minted Ukrainian army chief, in a re‐ cent Telegram post.