It's time for Trudeau to read the tea leaves
It's not me, it's you! If you're wondering why the Liberals lost this week's byelection in the supposedly safe seat of Lasalle—émard—verdun, just ask Prime Minister Justin Trudeau:
“We need people to be more engaged. We need people to understand what's at stake in this upcoming election. Obviously, it would have been nicer to win and hold Verdun, but there's more work to do and we're going to stay focused on doing it.”
The arrogance is breathtaking.
Actually, people fully understand what's at stake in the upcoming election. The Lasalle byelection was about Trudeau, the St. Paul's byelection was about Trudeau, and the general election will be about Trudeau.
Voters don't want four more years, or even two more years of him. It's been fun, please exit the ride now sir, your time is up.
Trudeau's hubris helped sink his party in Lasalle even before the race began. He handpicked his candidate, Laura Palestini, big-footing aspiring party nominees who were already working the riding, and who loudly complained about it.
Then 52 Liberal staffers refused to volunteer because of the Liberals' position on the Israel-hamas War, and worse yet, sent a letter to Trudeau about it. Next, Trudeau's national campaign director quit and a Quebec MP publicly called for him to step down.
None of these things helps win votes. Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois benefited from the rise of Parti Québécois fortunes in the province. They also mined the newfound clout the Bloc has in Ottawa since NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh ripped up the party's supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals. Bloc Leader Yves François Blanchet promised to deliver for Quebec by holding the Liberals to ransom.
It appears that their `woo the union vote' did not work on NDP voters in Winnipeg.
That clout may have saved the day for the NDP in Elmwood—transcona, however. There, the party was fighting the Conservatives for a seat held by two generations of Blaikies. The Tories' aggressive “sellout Singh” ads prompted the NDP leader to cut the cord with the Liberals to put some daylight between him and the government, and it worked — the NDP vote held, dropping only 1.6 per cent from 2021.
Which bring us to the other important story in these byelections: just which voters switched, and to whom?
The answer lies in part with the collapse of two other parties: the People's Party of Canada and the Green party.
In 2021 both parties took just over three per cent of the vote in Lasalle. In 2024, their scores plummeted to 0.5 per cent and 1.8 per cent votes, respectively. In Elmwood—transcona, the PPC won 5.82 per cent, the Greens 1.62 per cent in 2021. This time, they got 1.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively.
Where did those votes go? In the absence of an exit poll, the numbers hold a clue. In Lasalle, the Conservative vote grew from 7.45 per cent to 11.8 per cent, equal to the PPC'S loss plus a smattering of other voters. In Elmwood, the Conservatives made a gain of 15.9 per cent while the Liberals dropped by 9.9 per cent and the PPC fell by 4.6 per cent.
What does this mean for the Tories? It appears that their “woo the union vote” did not work on NDP voters in Winnipeg. Instead, they cannibalized the Liberals and won the PPC vote both there and in Quebec. While there is limited PPC vote left to pull nationally, there is plenty of fertile ground still in the Liberal camp.
What does this mean for the Liberals? It means that unless Trudeau quits, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will become prime minister.
For three elections, the Liberal brand has been synonymous with Trudeau. Canadians have soured on the PM and unless he reads the tea leaves, he will take his party with him. It's not clear who could right the sinking ship, or who would want to, but the iceberg is looming, Celine Dion is singing, and the race to the lifeboats has begun.